136 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
136 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
|
---
|
|||
|
|
name: valuation-analysis
|
|||
|
|
description: 估值與權益研究框架。涵蓋 DCF 折現現金流、可比公司分析、倍數估值、盈餘品質分析、管理層評估、目標價推導、財報紅旗檢查。
|
|||
|
|
---
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
# Valuation Analysis Skill
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
高盛 + 摩根士丹利等級的權益研究方法論。這是原始 12 個 Prompt 完全缺失的核心能力。
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## DCF 折現現金流估值
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### 10 年自由現金流預測
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
| 項目 | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6-Y10 |
|
|||
|
|
|------|-----|-----|-----|-----|-----|--------|
|
|||
|
|
| 營收 | $[X] | | | | | [成長率] |
|
|||
|
|
| 營收成長率 | [X]% | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| EBITDA | $[X] | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| EBITDA 利潤率 | [X]% | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| 資本支出 | $[X] | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| 營運資金變動 | $[X] | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| **自由現金流 (FCF)** | $[X] | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### DCF 核心假設
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
| 假設 | 值 | 理由 |
|
|||
|
|
|------|-----|------|
|
|||
|
|
| WACC (加權資金成本) | [X]% | [計算方法] |
|
|||
|
|
| 終值成長率 | [X]% | [通常 2-3%] |
|
|||
|
|
| 折現方法 | Gordon Growth / Exit Multiple | [選擇原因] |
|
|||
|
|
| Exit Multiple | [X]x EBITDA | [可比公司中位數] |
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### DCF 估值結果
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
| 方法 | 企業價值 (EV) | 淨現金/債 | 股權價值 | 每股價值 |
|
|||
|
|
|------|-------------|----------|---------|---------|
|
|||
|
|
| DCF (Gordon) | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
| DCF (Exit Multiple) | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 可比公司分析 (Comparable Companies)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
| 公司 | 市值 | EV | 營收 | EBITDA | P/E | EV/EBITDA | EV/營收 | P/S | PEG |
|
|||
|
|
|------|------|-----|------|--------|------|----------|---------|------|------|
|
|||
|
|
| [Comp 1] | | | | | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| [Comp 2] | | | | | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| [Comp 3] | | | | | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| [Comp 4] | | | | | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| **中位數** | | | | | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
| **平均值** | | | | | | | | | |
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
**目標公司隱含估值**：
|
|||
|
|
| 倍數 | Comp 中位數 | 目標公司指標 | 隱含估值 |
|
|||
|
|
|------|-----------|------------|---------|
|
|||
|
|
| P/E | [X]x | $[EPS] | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
| EV/EBITDA | [X]x | $[EBITDA] | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
| EV/Revenue | [X]x | $[Revenue] | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 盈餘品質分析
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### 財報紅旗檢查（Due Diligence）
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
| 檢查項目 | 狀態 | 說明 |
|
|||
|
|
|---------|------|------|
|
|||
|
|
| 營收成長 vs 現金流成長 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否同步] |
|
|||
|
|
| 應收帳款週轉天數趨勢 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否惡化] |
|
|||
|
|
| 存貨週轉天數趨勢 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否惡化] |
|
|||
|
|
| 營業現金流 vs 淨利 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [差異多大] |
|
|||
|
|
| 非經常性項目佔比 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否靠一次性收益] |
|
|||
|
|
| 關聯交易 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否異常] |
|
|||
|
|
| 審計意見 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否無保留] |
|
|||
|
|
| 管理層持股變動 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [近期是否減持] |
|
|||
|
|
| 會計政策變更 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [是否頻繁變更] |
|
|||
|
|
| 債務到期結構 | ✅/⚠️/🚩 | [短期壓力] |
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### 盈餘品質評分
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
A：高品質（現金流健康、透明度高、成長可持續）
|
|||
|
|
B：中等品質（部分指標需關注）
|
|||
|
|
C：低品質（多項紅旗、需謹慎）
|
|||
|
|
D：危險（建議避開或深入調查）
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 管理層評估
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
| 評估面向 | 評分 (1-10) | 依據 |
|
|||
|
|
|---------|-----------|------|
|
|||
|
|
| 執行力（過去承諾 vs 達成） | [N] | [具體過往紀錄] |
|
|||
|
|
| 資本配置能力 | [N] | [ROE/ROIC 趨勢] |
|
|||
|
|
| 激勵機制對齊 | [N] | [管理層薪酬結構] |
|
|||
|
|
| 內部人持股 | [N] | [持股比例+變動] |
|
|||
|
|
| 誠信度 | [N] | [過往爭議/訴訟] |
|
|||
|
|
| 產業經驗 | [N] | [年資/背景] |
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 目標價推導
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```markdown
|
|||
|
|
### 目標價區間
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
| 估值方法 | 估值（每股） | 權重 | 加權估值 |
|
|||
|
|
|---------|------------|------|---------|
|
|||
|
|
| DCF (Base) | $[X] | [X]% | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
| DCF (Bull) | $[X] | [X]% | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
| Comps (中位數) | $[X] | [X]% | $[X] |
|
|||
|
|
| **加權目標價** | | | **$[X]** |
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
**當前股價**：$[X]
|
|||
|
|
**上漲/下跌空間**：[+/-X]%
|
|||
|
|
**投資建議**：買入 / 持有 / 賣出
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 搜尋關鍵字
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
```
|
|||
|
|
[公司] financial statements SEC filing
|
|||
|
|
[公司] earnings transcript
|
|||
|
|
[公司] analyst estimates consensus
|
|||
|
|
[公司] DCF valuation analysis
|
|||
|
|
[行業] average P/E EV/EBITDA multiples
|
|||
|
|
[公司] insider trading form 4
|
|||
|
|
[公司] management compensation proxy
|
|||
|
|
[公司] audit report opinion
|
|||
|
|
```
|