{ "version": 1, "generatedAt": "2026-06-11T15:59:56.577Z", "principleCount": 110, "entries": { "原則一:看新聞買股票": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 2, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP74", "epLabel": "EP74", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十三:娛樂事件驅動交易", "原則六十八:消費慾望即投資信號", "原則四十八:消費降級逆週期" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則二:降息=衰退確認": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 2, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP70", "epLabel": "EP70", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七:升息連環效應", "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據", "原則五十五:利率高原期是股市安全期" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則三:進攻型Capex": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "TSM", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP01", "epLabel": "EP01", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則四十:地緣政治決定擴張機會", "原則十一:衰退期是好公司的打折季" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則四:供給瓶頸定價權": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "RTX", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP97", "epLabel": "EP97", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六:供需結構性消失不可逆", "原則十六:掠奪式平台沒有護城河", "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則五:時間是有價值的": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP01", "epLabel": "EP01", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則四十九:人贏過數據的商業模式", "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)", "原則十五:價格戰只投贏家" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則六:供需結構性消失不可逆": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP02", "epLabel": "EP02", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十五:價格戰只投贏家", "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)", "原則四:供給瓶頸定價權" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則七:升息連環效應": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP02", "epLabel": "EP02", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十:總經大於產業大於個股", "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據", "原則一百零一:恐慌要看結構性還是非結構性" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則八:政策打壓不可逆": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP02", "epLabel": "EP02", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則八十七:國運投資法 — 改革紅利 vs 救市麻醉劑", "原則四十三:出口管制養出競爭者", "原則七十三:武器庫存重建行情——跟一般補庫存不同" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則九:做空要確認沒有upside風險": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP02", "epLabel": "EP02", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則二十三:政治噪音 vs 營運問題", "原則七十六:市場共識大於個人判斷", "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則十:通膨下買兌換權,不買現金等價物": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP03", "epLabel": "EP03", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十三:娛樂事件驅動交易", "原則七十七:品牌聯合作為谷底翻身信號", "原則一百零八:硬體紅利消退,資金轉向軟體" ], "chartHint": "十大基石心法:結合總經水位與長期趨勢判斷" }, "原則十一:衰退期是好公司的打折季": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP03", "epLabel": "EP03", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則四十一:買公司比蓋公司快", "原則三:進攻型Capex" ] }, "原則十二:平台生態護城河": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP4", "epLabel": "EP.4", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六:供需結構性消失不可逆", "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)", "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)" ] }, "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 4, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP70", "epLabel": "EP70", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十一:衰退期是好公司的打折季", "原則三十九:經濟低迷期就是併購擴張期", "原則十八:暴跌是篩選器" ] }, "原則十四:補庫存行情≠結構性好轉": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "TSM", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP28", "epLabel": "EP.28", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點", "原則七十:蟑螂理論——看得見的問題暗示看不見的風險", "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機" ] }, "原則十五:價格戰只投贏家": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 2, "scenarioSymbol": "MSFT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP137", "epLabel": "EP137", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十二:平台生態護城河", "原則五:時間是有價值的", "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)" ] }, "原則十六:掠奪式平台沒有護城河": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMZN", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP33", "epLabel": "EP.33", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)", "原則五:時間是有價值的", "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)" ] }, "原則十七:財測比財報重要": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "AVGO", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP119", "epLabel": "EP119", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則四十七:毛利率是規模化的溫度計", "原則四十五:營收階梯是蓄力訊號", "原則七十一:認股權證條款透露公司對自己的信心" ] }, "原則十八:暴跌是篩選器": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMD", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-03", "epLabel": "EP.45", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則八十:短空長多的建倉時機", "原則六十七:大石頭理論(Don't Miss the Big Rocks)" ] }, "原則十九:大佬背書溢價": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP44", "epLabel": "EP.44", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零六:先認輸反而是利多", "原則五十三:股價低不是買的理由" ] }, "原則二十:輸出通縮(Export Deflation)": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-11", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-11-17)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十二:戰爭恐慌第5-7天就是最佳買點", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則九十四:聯盟訂單效應" ] }, "原則二十一:串流媒體經濟規模效應": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-11", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-11-17)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十五:價格戰只投贏家", "原則五:時間是有價值的", "原則四:供給瓶頸定價權" ] }, "原則二十二:競爭對手出包效應": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "MSFT", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-11", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-11-17)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點", "原則二十五:市場結構漏洞套利", "原則十四:補庫存行情≠結構性好轉" ] }, "原則二十三:政治噪音 vs 營運問題": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "TSM", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-11", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-11-17)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點", "原則九:做空要確認沒有upside風險", "原則二十二:競爭對手出包效應" ] }, "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP98", "epLabel": "EP98", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十:總經大於產業大於個股", "原則一百零一:恐慌要看結構性還是非結構性", "原則七:升息連環效應" ] }, "原則二十五:市場結構漏洞套利": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP98", "epLabel": "EP98", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九:做空要確認沒有upside風險", "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機", "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點" ] }, "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP147", "epLabel": "EP147", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九:做空要確認沒有upside風險", "原則十四:補庫存行情≠結構性好轉", "原則二十五:市場結構漏洞套利" ] }, "原則二十七:軍工認證護城河": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 2, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP134", "epLabel": "EP134", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十二:平台生態護城河", "原則四十九:人贏過數據的商業模式", "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)" ] }, "原則二十八:盤整區間不做短線": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-08", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-08-25)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十二:賣弱留強", "原則九十:六成看對就夠賺錢", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則二十九:數據修正不是造假": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-08", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-08-25)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九:做空要確認沒有upside風險", "原則七十六:市場共識大於個人判斷", "原則三十六:不要跟龍頭對撞" ] }, "原則三十:假貨橫行 = 最強的需求信號": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-08", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-08-25)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十五:粉絲經濟的跨界外溢", "原則一:看新聞買股票", "原則三十四:演唱會經濟的受惠鏈" ] }, "原則三十一:政策關門又開門是最強護城河": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-12", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-12-29)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五:時間是有價值的", "原則十二:平台生態護城河", "原則四十九:人贏過數據的商業模式" ] }, "原則三十二:跨國政策聯動下的市場一體化思維": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-12", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-12-29)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則八十四:救市套利", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則八十八:避開政策爆擊區" ] }, "原則三十三:娛樂事件驅動交易": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP39", "epLabel": "EP.39", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十:通膨下買兌換權,不買現金等價物", "原則一:看新聞買股票", "原則三十四:演唱會經濟的受惠鏈" ] }, "原則三十四:演唱會經濟的受惠鏈": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP39", "epLabel": "EP.39", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則一:看新聞買股票", "原則十:通膨下買兌換權,不買現金等價物", "原則六十八:消費慾望即投資信號" ] }, "原則三十五:粉絲經濟的跨界外溢": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP39", "epLabel": "EP.39", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則四十四:降息末升段的小型股狂歡", "原則五十六:消費者為好玩功能買單", "原則七十七:品牌聯合作為谷底翻身信號" ] }, "原則三十六:不要跟龍頭對撞": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMD", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP74", "epLabel": "EP74", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十四:補庫存行情≠結構性好轉", "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機", "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點" ] }, "原則三十七:資金退潮,實業為王": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP141", "epLabel": "EP141", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十:總經大於產業大於個股", "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據", "原則六十九:規模對比判斷恐慌合理性" ] }, "原則三十八:認知作戰創造的買點": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP97", "epLabel": "EP97", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則四十三:出口管制養出競爭者", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收" ] }, "原則三十九:經濟低迷期就是併購擴張期": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP29", "epLabel": "EP.29", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則四十一:買公司比蓋公司快", "原則八十:短空長多的建倉時機" ] }, "原則四十:地緣政治決定擴張機會": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 2, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP29", "epLabel": "EP.29", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則四十一:買公司比蓋公司快", "原則八十:短空長多的建倉時機" ] }, "原則四十一:買公司比蓋公司快": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP29", "epLabel": "EP.29", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則三:進攻型Capex", "原則十一:衰退期是好公司的打折季" ] }, "原則四十二:跨國管理要當地化": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP29", "epLabel": "EP.29", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則一百零九:關稅受益國原則", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則四十三:出口管制養出競爭者" ] }, "原則四十三:出口管制養出競爭者": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP118", "epLabel": "EP118", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則八十八:避開政策爆擊區", "原則七十四:戰爭的二次效應比戰爭本身更重要" ] }, "原則四十四:降息末升段的小型股狂歡": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP118", "epLabel": "EP118", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十七:品牌聯合作為谷底翻身信號", "原則一:看新聞買股票", "原則五十六:消費者為好玩功能買單" ] }, "原則四十五:營收階梯是蓄力訊號": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP123", "epLabel": "EP123", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零四:春蠶效應 — 最後一燒的雙面刃", "原則四十七:毛利率是規模化的溫度計" ] }, "原則四十六:研發投入比是經營者的誠實指標": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP123", "epLabel": "EP123", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零四:春蠶效應 — 最後一燒的雙面刃", "原則七十一:認股權證條款透露公司對自己的信心" ] }, "原則四十七:毛利率是規模化的溫度計": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP123", "epLabel": "EP123", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則五十三:股價低不是買的理由", "原則四十五:營收階梯是蓄力訊號" ] }, "原則四十八:消費降級逆週期": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP71", "epLabel": "EP71會員影片", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十五:粉絲經濟的跨界外溢", "原則十:通膨下買兌換權,不買現金等價物", "原則三十:假貨橫行 = 最強的需求信號" ] }, "原則四十九:人贏過數據的商業模式": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP71", "epLabel": "EP71會員影片", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)", "原則三十一:政策關門又開門是最強護城河", "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)" ] }, "原則五十:總經大於產業大於個股": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-09", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-09-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據", "原則三十七:資金退潮,實業為王", "原則一百零一:恐慌要看結構性還是非結構性" ] }, "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-09", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-09-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則一百:W底是信念換手", "原則六十三:多頭全利空頭半損", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則五十二:空頭市場集中龍頭、換入防禦": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "META", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-09", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-09-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易", "原則九十:六成看對就夠賺錢", "原則五十九:觸發式減倉" ] }, "原則五十三:股價低不是買的理由": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-09", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-09-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則八十三:管理層判斷力是最優先級的風險指標", "原則一百零三:管理層信任溢價與折價" ] }, "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "TSM", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP56", "epLabel": "EP56", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十三:多頭全利空頭半損", "原則九十:六成看對就夠賺錢", "原則五十九:觸發式減倉" ] }, "原則五十五:利率高原期是股市安全期": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-06", "epLabel": "EP56", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十:總經大於產業大於個股", "原則一百零一:恐慌要看結構性還是非結構性", "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據" ] }, "原則五十六:消費者為好玩功能買單": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP56", "epLabel": "EP56", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十三:娛樂事件驅動交易", "原則十:通膨下買兌換權,不買現金等價物", "原則三十:假貨橫行 = 最強的需求信號" ] }, "原則五十七:供應鏈訂單是股價的領先指標": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP59", "epLabel": "EP59", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則一百零八:硬體紅利消退,資金轉向軟體", "原則三十五:粉絲經濟的跨界外溢", "原則三十四:演唱會經濟的受惠鏈" ] }, "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP59", "epLabel": "EP59", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則二十三:政治噪音 vs 營運問題", "原則三十六:不要跟龍頭對撞", "原則二十二:競爭對手出包效應" ] }, "原則五十九:觸發式減倉": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九十七:不空手原則(Never Go to Zero)", "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十:逃命波不是V轉": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十五:陰跌比暴跌更可怕", "原則六十四:情緒不交易", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十一:戰爭不確定性輕倉": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九十八:價量圖輔助判斷法", "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十二:賣弱留強": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "TSM", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則八十五:交易不是投資", "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十三:多頭全利空頭半損": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十:逃命波不是V轉", "原則九十:六成看對就夠賺錢", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十四:情緒不交易": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十五:陰跌比暴跌更可怕", "原則六十:逃命波不是V轉", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十五:陰跌比暴跌更可怕": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP49", "epLabel": "EP49", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十二:賣弱留強", "原則九十六:結果論陷阱(Outcome Bias)", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP55", "epLabel": "EP55", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五:時間是有價值的", "原則十二:平台生態護城河", "原則六:供需結構性消失不可逆" ] }, "原則六十七:大石頭理論(Don't Miss the Big Rocks)": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP55", "epLabel": "EP55", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則十一:衰退期是好公司的打折季", "原則三:進攻型Capex" ] }, "原則六十八:消費慾望即投資信號": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 2, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP55", "epLabel": "EP55", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則一百零七:科技成本下降 = 市場擴張", "原則三十五:粉絲經濟的跨界外溢", "原則一:看新聞買股票" ] }, "原則六十九:規模對比判斷恐慌合理性": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-10", "epLabel": "會員影片 (2025-10-10)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十七:資金退潮,實業為王", "原則五十五:利率高原期是股市安全期", "原則七:升息連環效應" ] }, "原則七十:蟑螂理論——看得見的問題暗示看不見的風險": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-10", "epLabel": "會員影片 (2025-10-10)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則二十三:政治噪音 vs 營運問題", "原則三十六:不要跟龍頭對撞", "原則八十二:替代效應——買不到龍頭就買二哥" ] }, "原則七十一:認股權證條款透露公司對自己的信心": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-10", "epLabel": "會員影片 (2025-10-10)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則九十二:EPS成長率 > 營收成長率 = 高毛利業務擴張", "原則九十一:營收獲利雙雙暴漲=營運槓桿辨識法" ] }, "原則七十二:戰爭恐慌第5-7天就是最佳買點": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP142", "epLabel": "EP142", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收", "原則二十:輸出通縮(Export Deflation)", "原則三十二:跨國政策聯動下的市場一體化思維" ] }, "原則七十三:武器庫存重建行情——跟一般補庫存不同": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NOC", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP142", "epLabel": "EP142", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則四十二:跨國管理要當地化", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則一百零九:關稅受益國原則" ] }, "原則七十四:戰爭的二次效應比戰爭本身更重要": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP142", "epLabel": "EP142", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則二十:輸出通縮(Export Deflation)" ] }, "原則七十五:不要恨你的敵人——情緒影響判斷": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP142", "epLabel": "EP142", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十四:戰爭的二次效應比戰爭本身更重要", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則四十三:出口管制養出競爭者" ] }, "原則七十六:市場共識大於個人判斷": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-02", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-02-27)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十八:技術性事件造成的下跌是買點", "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機", "原則二十三:政治噪音 vs 營運問題" ] }, "原則七十七:品牌聯合作為谷底翻身信號": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-02", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-02-27)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十三:娛樂事件驅動交易", "原則三十五:粉絲經濟的跨界外溢", "原則三十四:演唱會經濟的受惠鏈" ] }, "原則七十八:監管變動創造贏家與輸家": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-02", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-02-27)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十八:認知作戰創造的買點", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則四十二:跨國管理要當地化" ] }, "原則七十九:超高本益比是脆弱信號": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-02", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-02-27)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則四十七:毛利率是規模化的溫度計", "原則四十五:營收階梯是蓄力訊號" ] }, "原則八十:短空長多的建倉時機": { "groupName": "進攻與擴張時機", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMZN", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-02", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-02-27)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十三:長期趨勢跌就買", "原則四十一:買公司比蓋公司快", "原則六十七:大石頭理論(Don't Miss the Big Rocks)" ] }, "原則八十一:資本支出必須與獲利能力匹配(CapEx/Net Income Ratio)": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "META", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-12", "epLabel": "會員影片 (2025-12-11)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零三:管理層信任溢價與折價", "原則四十七:毛利率是規模化的溫度計" ] }, "原則八十二:替代效應——買不到龍頭就買二哥": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "QQQ", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-12", "epLabel": "會員影片 (2025-12-11)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則二十三:政治噪音 vs 營運問題", "原則七十:蟑螂理論——看得見的問題暗示看不見的風險", "原則二十六:連鎖恐慌的入場時機" ] }, "原則八十三:管理層判斷力是最優先級的風險指標": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則八十一:資本支出必須與獲利能力匹配(CapEx/Net Income Ratio)", "原則四十五:營收階梯是蓄力訊號" ] }, "原則八十四:救市套利": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP72", "epLabel": "EP72", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十八:監管變動創造贏家與輸家", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則一百零九:關稅受益國原則" ] }, "原則八十五:交易不是投資": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP72", "epLabel": "EP72", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易", "原則九十九:配息行情安全墊", "原則五十九:觸發式減倉" ] }, "原則八十六:政府行為模式分析": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP72", "epLabel": "EP72", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則八十八:避開政策爆擊區", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則三十二:跨國政策聯動下的市場一體化思維" ] }, "原則八十七:國運投資法 — 改革紅利 vs 救市麻醉劑": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-12", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-12-07)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十五:不要恨你的敵人——情緒影響判斷", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則九十四:聯盟訂單效應" ] }, "原則八十八:避開政策爆擊區": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "3y", "scenarioWindow": "2024-12", "epLabel": "會員影片(2024-12-07)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則二十:輸出通縮(Export Deflation)" ] }, "原則八十九:分散持股保護判斷失誤": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMD", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2026-05", "epLabel": "會員影片(2026-05-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十一:戰爭不確定性輕倉", "原則五十二:空頭市場集中龍頭、換入防禦", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則九十:六成看對就夠賺錢": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2026-05", "epLabel": "會員影片(2026-05-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十一:戰爭不確定性輕倉", "原則九十七:不空手原則(Never Go to Zero)", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則九十一:營收獲利雙雙暴漲=營運槓桿辨識法": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMD", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2026-05", "epLabel": "會員影片(2026-05-08)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則八十一:資本支出必須與獲利能力匹配(CapEx/Net Income Ratio)", "原則十九:大佬背書溢價" ] }, "原則九十二:EPS成長率 > 營收成長率 = 高毛利業務擴張": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP70", "epLabel": "EP70", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零六:先認輸反而是利多", "原則九十一:營收獲利雙雙暴漲=營運槓桿辨識法" ] }, "原則九十三:CEO行為訊號 — 執行長公開活動是公司體檢表": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP70", "epLabel": "EP70", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則七十九:超高本益比是脆弱信號", "原則八十一:資本支出必須與獲利能力匹配(CapEx/Net Income Ratio)" ] }, "原則九十四:聯盟訂單效應": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-08", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-08-09)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則七十二:戰爭恐慌第5-7天就是最佳買點" ] }, "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "2025-08", "epLabel": "會員影片(2025-08-09)", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則八十四:救市套利", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則七十二:戰爭恐慌第5-7天就是最佳買點" ] }, "原則九十六:結果論陷阱(Outcome Bias)": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易", "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序", "原則五十九:觸發式減倉" ] }, "原則九十七:不空手原則(Never Go to Zero)": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十五:陰跌比暴跌更可怕", "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序", "原則六十一:戰爭不確定性輕倉" ] }, "原則九十八:價量圖輔助判斷法": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十二:空頭市場集中龍頭、換入防禦", "原則五十一:空頭市場的系統性賣股優先順序", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則九十九:配息行情安全墊": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十二:空頭市場集中龍頭、換入防禦", "原則九十八:價量圖輔助判斷法", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則一百:W底是信念換手": { "groupName": "交易紀律與資金管理", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則六十二:賣弱留強", "原則五十九:觸發式減倉", "原則五十四:三面向判斷交易" ] }, "原則一百零一:恐慌要看結構性還是非結構性": { "groupName": "總經與市場水位", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "SPY", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP154", "epLabel": "EP154", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則五十五:利率高原期是股市安全期", "原則二十四:即時數據先於官方數據", "原則七:升息連環效應" ] }, "原則一百零二:相對價值決定資金流向": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP154", "epLabel": "EP154", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零四:春蠶效應 — 最後一燒的雙面刃", "原則九十二:EPS成長率 > 營收成長率 = 高毛利業務擴張" ] }, "原則一百零三:管理層信任溢價與折價": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP154", "epLabel": "EP154", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則十九:大佬背書溢價", "原則四十五:營收階梯是蓄力訊號" ] }, "原則一百零四:春蠶效應 — 最後一燒的雙面刃": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 1, "scenarioSymbol": "MSFT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP137", "epLabel": "EP137", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則八十一:資本支出必須與獲利能力匹配(CapEx/Net Income Ratio)", "原則七十一:認股權證條款透露公司對自己的信心" ] }, "原則一百零五:無用之用是為大用(Apple的耐心戰略)": { "groupName": "護城河與商業模式", "instanceIndex": 3, "scenarioSymbol": "AAPL", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP137", "epLabel": "EP137", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十六:掠奪式平台沒有護城河", "原則六十六:變現優先於技術(Monetization over Technology)", "原則四:供給瓶頸定價權" ] }, "原則一百零六:先認輸反而是利多": { "groupName": "財報估值與管理層", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "MSFT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP137", "epLabel": "EP137", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則十七:財測比財報重要", "原則一百零二:相對價值決定資金流向", "原則九十二:EPS成長率 > 營收成長率 = 高毛利業務擴張" ] }, "原則一百零七:科技成本下降 = 市場擴張": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "COST", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP89", "epLabel": "EP89", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十七:品牌聯合作為谷底翻身信號", "原則三十四:演唱會經濟的受惠鏈", "原則五十七:供應鏈訂單是股價的領先指標" ] }, "原則一百零八:硬體紅利消退,資金轉向軟體": { "groupName": "生活觀察與消費信號", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "NVDA", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP89", "epLabel": "EP89", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則三十三:娛樂事件驅動交易", "原則五十六:消費者為好玩功能買單", "原則三十:假貨橫行 = 最強的需求信號" ] }, "原則一百零九:關稅受益國原則": { "groupName": "地緣政治與政策博弈", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "LMT", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP89", "epLabel": "EP89", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則七十三:武器庫存重建行情——跟一般補庫存不同", "原則八:政策打壓不可逆", "原則九十五:訂單量領先營收" ] }, "原則一百一十:政治噪音下跌是買點(強化實例)": { "groupName": "市場心理與反指標", "instanceIndex": 0, "scenarioSymbol": "AMZN", "chartRange": "1y", "scenarioWindow": "EP89", "epLabel": "EP89", "distractorPrinciples": [ "原則二十九:數據修正不是造假", "原則九:做空要確認沒有upside風險", "原則十四:補庫存行情≠結構性好轉" ] } } }