149 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
149 lines
4.1 KiB
Markdown
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---
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date: 2026-02-03
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type: ranking
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strategy: quantum
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---
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# 量子運算股票排名比較
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**生成時間**: 2026-02-03 17:00
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**策略類型**: 事件驅動型
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**比較標的**: IONQ, RGTI
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---
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## 🏆 綜合排名
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| 排名 | Ticker | 評分 | 建議倉位 | 優先行動 |
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| ---- | -------- | ---- | -------- | -------- |
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| 🥇 | **IONQ** | 86 | 3-4% | ✅ 建倉 |
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| 🥈 | **RGTI** | 82 | 2-3% | ✅ 可考慮 |
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---
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## 📊 詳細比較
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### 基礎數據
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| 指標 | IONQ | RGTI | 優勝 |
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| ------------ | ------ | ------ | ---- |
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| **股價** | $38.51 | $18.25 | — |
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| **市值** | $13.6B | $5.8B | IONQ |
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| **日均量** | 21M | ~10M | IONQ |
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| **機構持股** | 47.8% | ~35% | IONQ |
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### 催化劑比較
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| 催化劑 | IONQ | RGTI | 優勝 |
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| -------------- | ---------------- | -------- | ---- |
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| **財報日** | 2026-02-25 | ~2026-02 | 相近 |
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| **收購/整合** | SkyWater $1.8B ✅ | 無 | IONQ |
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| **政府合約** | $100M+ AFRL | 有合約 | IONQ |
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| **技術里程碑** | 100-256 Qubit | 84 Qubit | IONQ |
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### 期權活躍度
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| 指標 | IONQ | RGTI | 優勝 |
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| ------------ | ---- | ---- | ---- |
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| **IV** | 91% | 102% | RGTI |
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| **IV Rank** | 28% | 33% | RGTI |
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| **Call/Put** | 看多 | 看多 | 相近 |
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### 分析師評級
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| 指標 | IONQ | RGTI | 優勝 |
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| ------------ | ---------- | ------------ | ---- |
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| **共識** | Strong Buy | Moderate Buy | IONQ |
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| **目標價** | $71~$100 | $32.60 | — |
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| **上行空間** | +85%~+160% | +103% | IONQ |
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### 技術面
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| 指標 | IONQ | RGTI | 優勝 |
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| ----------- | --------- | ------ | ---- |
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| **RSI** | 31 (超賣) | ~40 | IONQ |
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| **vs 50MA** | -21% | ~-10% | RGTI |
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| **趨勢** | 回調中 | 回調中 | 相近 |
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---
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## 📈 評分明細
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### IONQ (86/100)
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| 維度 | 分數 | 說明 |
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| ------ | ----- | -------------------- |
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| 催化劑 | 9/10 | Q4 財報 + SkyWater |
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| 基本面 | 7/10 | 營收成長, 尚未獲利 |
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| 期權 | 9/10 | IV 91% |
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| 機構 | 9/10 | 47.8%, Vanguard 領頭 |
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| 流動性 | 10/10 | 21M 日均量 |
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### RGTI (82/100 估算)
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| 維度 | 分數 | 說明 |
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| ------ | ----- | ------------------ |
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| 催化劑 | 8/10 | 量子突破題材 |
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| 基本面 | 6/10 | 營收較小, 尚未獲利 |
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| 期權 | 10/10 | IV 102% |
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| 機構 | 7/10 | ~35% |
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| 流動性 | 8/10 | ~10M 日均量 |
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---
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## 🎯 投資建議
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### IONQ 優勢
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- ✅ SkyWater 收購帶來垂直整合
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- ✅ 政府合約 pipeline 更大 ($100M+)
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- ✅ 市場領導地位更明確
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- ✅ 機構持股更高
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- ✅ RSI 超賣 = 潛在反彈
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### RGTI 優勢
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- ✅ IV 更高 = 期權策略更佳
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- ✅ 市值更小 = 爆發潛力更大
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- ✅ 上行空間 103% 有吸引力
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- ✅ 價格較低 = 入場門檻低
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---
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## 💰 建議配置
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### 量子主題總倉位: 5-7%
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| 標的 | 配置 | 優先級 | 理由 |
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| -------- | ---- | ------ | -------------------- |
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| **IONQ** | 3-4% | 🥇 首選 | 催化劑明確, 龍頭地位 |
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| **RGTI** | 2-3% | 🥈 次選 | 高 IV, 小市值爆發力 |
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### 執行順序
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1. **先建 IONQ 倉位** - RSI 超賣, 催化劑集中
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2. **觀察 RGTI** - 若回調至 $15 附近可加入
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3. **財報後評估** - 2/25 後依結果調整比例
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---
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## ⚠️ 風險對比
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| 風險 | IONQ | RGTI |
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| -------- | --------------- | ----------- |
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| 估值風險 | 🟠 P/S >60x | 🟠 P/S >50x |
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| 收購風險 | 🟠 SkyWater 整合 | — |
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| 競爭風險 | 🟡 IBM/Google | 🟠 IONQ 領先 |
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| 流動性 | 🟢 極高 | 🟡 中等 |
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---
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## 🔗 相關報告
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- [IONQ 股票數據](./2026-02-03-IONQ-stock-data.md)
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- [IONQ 催化劑](./2026-02-03-IONQ-catalyst.md)
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- [IONQ 風險評分](./2026-02-03-IONQ-risk-score.md)
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- [IONQ 進出場](./2026-02-03-IONQ-entry-exit.md)
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---
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更新時間: 2026-02-03 17:00 | 分析師: Claude
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