229 lines
5.8 KiB
Markdown
229 lines
5.8 KiB
Markdown
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---
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date: 2026-02-03
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ticker: AAPL
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type: stock-data
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---
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# 📊 AAPL (Apple) 股票數據報告
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> ⚠️ **注意**: AAPL 為大型藍籌股，不適合事件驅動型短線策略，更適合長期持有型投資。
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## 📌 快速摘要 (5 指標)
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| 項目 | 數值 | 評級 |
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| --------- | -------------------------- | ---- |
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| 股價/市值 | $270.01 / $3.97T | ✅ |
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| IV / OI | ~20% (低波動) | ⚠️ |
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| 機構態度 | 38.7% 穩定持有 | ✅ |
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| 財務狀況 | Q1 營收 $143.8B (+16%) | ✅ |
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| 分析師 | Strong Buy, 目標 $300~$350 | ✅ |
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---
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## 1️⃣ 基礎市場數據
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| 項目 | 數值 | 來源 |
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| -------------- | ---------------- | --------------- |
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| **當前股價** | $270.01 (+4.06%) | 2026-02-02 收盤 |
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| **市值** | $3.97T | 全球第一 |
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| **日均成交量** | 45-47M 股 | 3 個月平均 |
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| **今日成交量** | 74M 股 | +55% 高於平均 |
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| **機構持股** | 38.74% | Vanguard 領頭 |
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**狀態**: ✅ 已確認
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---
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## 2️⃣ 財務數據
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### Q1 FY2026 (截至 2025-12-27)
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| 指標 | 數值 | YoY |
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| ----------------- | ------- | ------ |
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| **營收** | $143.8B | +16% 🟢 |
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| **淨利** | $42.1B | +19% 🟢 |
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| **EPS** | $2.84 | +19% 🟢 |
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| **iPhone 營收** | $85.3B | +23% 🔥 |
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| **Services 營收** | $30B | +14% 🟢 |
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**財報日期**: 2026-01-29
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### 財務結構
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| 項目 | 評估 |
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| ------------ | ---------- |
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| **現金** | >$160B | 🟢 極充足 |
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| **債務** | 穩健 | 🟢 低槓桿 |
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| **獲利能力** | 穩定高獲利 | 🟢 |
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| **股息** | $0.25/季 | 穩定 |
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**財務狀況**: 🟢 **極度健康**
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---
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## 3️⃣ 機構持股
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### 持股結構
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| 類型 | 比例 |
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| ---------- | ------ |
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| 機構持股 | 38.74% |
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| 內部人持股 | <1% |
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| 散戶持股 | ~60% |
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### Top 5 機構
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| 機構 | 持股比例 |
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| ---------------------- | -------- |
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| **Vanguard Group** | 9.52% |
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| **BlackRock** | 7.76% |
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| **State Street** | 4.07% |
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| **Berkshire Hathaway** | ~5% |
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| **Geode Capital** | ~2% |
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**態度**: ✅ 穩定持有 (藍籌標配)
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---
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## 4️⃣ 期權市場
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| 指標 | 數值 | 含義 |
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| ------------ | ---- | -------------- |
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| **IV** | ~20% | 🟡 低波動 |
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| **IV Rank** | 低 | 不適合賣方策略 |
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| **Call/Put** | 中性 | — |
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**期權建議**: ⚠️ 波動太低，期權策略收益有限
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---
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## 5️⃣ 分析師評級
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### 共識 (2026-02)
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| 評級 | 家數 | % |
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| -------------- | ---- | --- |
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| **Strong Buy** | 19 | 63% |
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| **Buy** | — | — |
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| **Hold** | 10 | 34% |
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| **Sell** | 1 | 3% |
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**總體**: 🟢 Strong Buy (8.0/10)
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### 目標價
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| 項目 | 價格 |
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| --------------- | ----------------------- |
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| **共識目標** | $300 |
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| **最高目標** | $350 (Wedbush Dan Ives) |
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| **最低目標** | $239 |
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| **J.P. Morgan** | $325 (1/30 上調) |
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**上行空間**: +11% ~ +30%
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---
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## 6️⃣ 進階數據
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### 內部人交易
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| 統計 | 數據 |
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| ------------ | -------------------------- |
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| **近 90 天** | Tim Cook 限售股賣出 (正常) |
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| **淨買入** | ⚠️ 中性 (無大額買入) |
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### 新聞情緒
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| 類型 | 比例 |
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| ---- | ---- |
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| 正面 | 70% |
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| 中性 | 25% |
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| 負面 | 5% |
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**近期重要新聞**:
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1. **2026-01-29** Q1 財報超預期，營收 $143.8B 創紀錄
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2. **AI 策略** Dan Ives: "2026 是 Apple 真正進入 AI 競賽之年"
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3. **iPhone 強勁** iPhone 營收 +23% YoY
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---
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## 7️⃣ 基本面評估
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### 成長驅動
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| 驅動力 | 影響 |
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| ---------------------- | ----------------- |
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| **iPhone 16 Pro** | 持續熱銷 |
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| **Apple Intelligence** | AI 功能推動換機潮 |
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| **Services 成長** | 持續高毛利 |
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| **Vision Pro 2** | 2026 下半年? |
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### 主要風險
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| 風險 | 嚴重性 | 說明 |
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| ------------ | ------- | ---------- |
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| **中國競爭** | 🟡 低-中 | 華為等競爭 |
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| **監管風險** | 🟡 低 | 反壟斷調查 |
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| **估值偏高** | 🟡 低 | P/E ~30x |
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### 投資論述
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**核心邏輯**:
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- ✅ 全球最強消費品牌，現金流穩定
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- ✅ AI 功能推動新一波換機潮
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- ✅ Services 高毛利持續成長
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- ⚠️ 估值不便宜，上行空間有限
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**適合類型**:
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- ❌ 短線事件驅動 (波動太低)
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- ✅ **長期持有型** (核心持股)
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- ✅ **價值型投資** (穩定配息)
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**決策建議**:
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- ✅ 長期持有/定期定額
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- ⚠️ 短線不適合 (波動低, 上行空間有限)
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---
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## 📊 數據完整度
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| 類別 | 狀態 |
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| -------- | ---- |
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| 基礎市場 | ✅ |
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| 財務數據 | ✅ |
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| 機構持股 | ✅ |
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| 期權市場 | ✅ |
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| 分析師 | ✅ |
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| 內部人 | ⚠️ |
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| 新聞情緒 | ✅ |
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**整體**: 95% 完整
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---
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## 🆚 與策略標的比較
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| 項目 | AAPL | ONDS | IONQ |
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| ------ | ------ | -------- | -------- |
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| 市值 | $3.97T | $4.49B | $13.6B |
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| 評分 | N/A | 90 | 86 |
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| IV | ~20% | 107% | 91% |
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| 適合度 | 長期 | 事件驅動 | 事件驅動 |
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---
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## 🔗 後續步驟
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對於 **AAPL** 這類大型藍籌股，建議:
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- 長期持有作為核心持股
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- 定期定額累積
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- 不適合本系統的事件驅動策略
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如需短線標的，建議繼續分析:
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- `/full-analysis RGTI`
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- `/stock-data OKLO`
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---
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更新時間: 2026-02-03 17:18 | 分析師: Claude
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