178 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
178 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
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---
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date: 2026-02-03
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ticker: IONQ
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type: catalyst
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---
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# IONQ 催化劑時間表
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**生成時間**: 2026-02-03 16:54
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**分析週期**: 1-3 個月 (至 2026 Q2)
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---
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## 📅 催化劑時間軸
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```
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2026-02 ──────────────────────────────── 2026-Q2/Q3
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│ │
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├─ 2/25 Q4 財報 🔥 │
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│ │
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├─ 進行中: 政府合約簽約 │
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│ │
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└─────────── SkyWater 收購完成 ────────────┘
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(Q2-Q3 預計)
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```
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---
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## ✅ 已確認催化劑
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### 1️⃣ Q4 2025 財報發布
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------------- | ----------------- |
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| **預計日期** | 2026-02-25 (週三) |
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| **Conference Call** | 12:00 ET |
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| **EPS 預估** | -$0.48 |
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| **營收預測** | FY25 $106-110M |
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| **影響** | 🔥 高 |
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| **概率** | 100% |
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**關注重點**:
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- FY2026 營收指引 ($200M+ 目標)
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- SkyWater 整合進度更新
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- 政府合約 pipeline 披露
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---
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### 2️⃣ SkyWater Technology 收購
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------ | ------------------- |
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| **宣布日期** | 2026-01-26/27 |
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| **交易金額** | $1.8B (現金+股票) |
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| **預計完成** | 2026 Q2-Q3 |
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| **待辦** | 股東投票 + 監管審批 |
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| **影響** | 🔥🔥 極高 |
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| **概率** | 85% (監管風險) |
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**戰略意義**:
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- ✅ 垂直整合：設計→製造→封裝 全美供應鏈
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- ✅ 政府合約優勢：國防/情報業務資格
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- ✅ 加速 200K qubit QPU (2028) 和 2M qubit (2030)
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- ✅ Pro-forma 營收跳升至 ~$800M
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---
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### 3️⃣ IonQ Federal 政府合約
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------- | ----------------------------- |
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| **成立時間** | 2025-09 |
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| **現有合約** | >$100M (AFRL 持續) |
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| **新任 CIO** | Katie Arrington (前 DoD 官員) |
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| **2026 目標** | 擴大聯邦業務 |
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| **影響** | 🔥 高 |
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| **概率** | 80% |
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**已簽約項目**:
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- AFRL 量子系統強化 $54.5M
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- AFRL 安全量子網路 $21.1M
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- DARPA 專案
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- Oak Ridge National Labs
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---
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## 🟡 潛在催化劑
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### 4️⃣ 100-256 Qubit 系統部署
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------ | ---------- |
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| **預計時間** | 2026 年內 |
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| **意義** | 技術里程碑 |
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| **影響** | 🟡 中 |
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| **概率** | 75% |
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---
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### 5️⃣ 商業合作夥伴拓展
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| 合作夥伴 | 領域 | 時間 | 狀態 |
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| -------------------- | -------- | ------------ | ---------- |
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| **CCRM** | 再生醫學 | 2026 啟動 | ✅ 已簽 |
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| **Einride** | 自駕物流 | 2026 | ✅ 已簽 |
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| **U of Chicago** | 學術研究 | 進行中 | ✅ 已簽 |
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| **Seed Innovations** | 政府 IT | 2026-01 完成 | ✅ 收購完成 |
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---
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## ⚠️ 風險事件
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### 1. SkyWater 交易風險
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| 風險 | 概率 | 影響 |
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| --------- | ---- | ---- |
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| 股東否決 | 10% | -20% |
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| 監管阻擋 | 5% | -25% |
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| 延遲至 Q4 | 20% | -10% |
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### 2. 財報風險
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| 風險 | 概率 | 影響 |
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| --------- | ---- | ---- |
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| 營收 miss | 15% | -15% |
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| 指引保守 | 25% | -10% |
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### 3. 競爭風險
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| 競爭對手 | 威脅 |
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| -------- | -------------- |
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| IBM | 量子線路圖更新 |
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| Google | Willow 進展 |
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| Rigetti | 同期財報 |
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---
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## 📊 催化劑成功概率評估
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| 催化劑 | 概率 | 影響 | 加權分 |
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| ------------- | ---- | ---- | -------- |
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| Q4 財報達標 | 85% | +10% | 8.5 |
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| SkyWater 完成 | 85% | +25% | 21.3 |
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| 新政府合約 | 70% | +15% | 10.5 |
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| 技術里程碑 | 75% | +10% | 7.5 |
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| **總計** | — | — | **47.8** |
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**綜合評估**: 🟢 **高確定性** + **高影響** 催化劑組合
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---
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## 🎯 交易建議
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### 時間窗口
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| 事件 | 建議 |
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| --------------- | ------------------- |
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| **現在 - 2/25** | 財報前建倉期 |
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| **2/25** | 財報日 - 觀望或輕倉 |
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| **2/25 後** | 依財報結果調整 |
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| **Q2-Q3** | SkyWater 完成前持有 |
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### 策略建議
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1. **財報前**: 可建立 40-60% 基礎倉位
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2. **財報後**: 依結果決定加倉/減倉
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3. **SkyWater 完成**: 重大催化劑，持有至完成
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4. **停損觸發**: 財報大幅 miss 或收購告吹
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---
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## 🔗 後續步驟
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1. `/risk-score IONQ` - 風險評分
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2. `/entry-exit IONQ` - 進出場點
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3. `/ranking quantum` - 與 RGTI 比較
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---
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更新時間: 2026-02-03 16:54 | 分析師: Claude
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