217 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
217 lines
6.3 KiB
Markdown
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---
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date: 2026-02-03
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ticker: IONQ
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type: entry-exit
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---
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# IONQ 進出場分析報告
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**生成時間**: 2026-02-03 16:59
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**當前股價**: $38.51
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---
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## 📊 技術面摘要
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| 指標 | 數值 | 判斷 |
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| --------- | ------------- | --------------------- |
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| RSI (14) | 31.2 | 🟢 **超賣** (買入機會) |
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| MACD | -1.68 | 🔴 空頭信號 |
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| vs 50MA | -21% ($48.55) | 🔴 遠低於 |
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| vs 200MA | -25% ($51.49) | 🔴 遠低於 |
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| 1月漲跌幅 | -10.9% | 🔴 回調中 |
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**技術面狀態**: ⚠️ **短期超賣，中期承壓**
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- ❌ 股價遠低於 50MA/200MA = 中期弱勢
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- ✅ RSI 31 超賣區 = 潛在反彈機會
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- ⚠️ MACD 負值 = 動能偏弱
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**結論**: 技術面短期超賣提供買入機會，但需注意中期仍在下降趨勢
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---
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## 📉 支撐位分析
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| 支撐價位 | 來源依據 | 強度 | 備註 |
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| ---------- | ------------- | ---- | ---------- |
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| **$38.00** | 近期盤整區 | 🔴 強 | 第一道防線 |
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| **$35.00** | 心理整數 | 🟡 中 | 次要支撐 |
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| **$30.85** | 技術預測低點 | 🟡 中 | 深度回調 |
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| **$28.00** | 2025 歷史支撐 | 🔴 強 | 終極防線 |
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**主要支撐**: $38.00 (現價區)
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**次要支撐**: $35.00
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**關鍵支撐**: $30.00 (心理價位，建議停損線)
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---
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## 📈 壓力位分析
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| 壓力價位 | 來源依據 | 強度 | 備註 |
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| ---------- | -------------- | ---- | -------- |
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| **$42.00** | 近期高點 | 🟡 中 | 短期壓力 |
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| **$48.55** | 50日均線 | 🔴 強 | 中期壓力 |
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| **$51.49** | 200日均線 | 🔴 強 | 長期壓力 |
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| **$55.45** | 技術阻力 | 🔴 強 | 突破確認 |
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| **$71.00** | 分析師共識目標 | 🟡 中 | 中期目標 |
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**主要壓力**: $42.00 (短期)
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**次要壓力**: $48.55 (50MA)
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**目標壓力**: $71.00 (分析師共識)
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---
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## 💰 分析師目標價整合
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| 券商 | 評級 | 目標價 | 日期 |
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| ---------- | ---------- | ------- | ---------- |
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| Rosenblatt | Buy | $100 | 2026-01-27 |
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| Needham | Buy | $80 | 2026-01-27 |
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| 共識 | Strong Buy | $71~$76 | — |
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**共識目標價**: $71.00 ~ $76.00
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**範圍**: $55 (保守) - $100 (樂觀)
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**上行空間**: +85% ~ +160%
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---
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## 📈 進場策略 (分批建倉)
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> **總計劃倉位**: 3-4% (基於風險評分 86/100)
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### 第一批倉位 (40% 資金)
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------ | ---------------------- |
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| **進場價** | $36.00 ~ $38.00 |
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| **觸發條件** | RSI < 35 + 支撐測試 |
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| **建倉比例** | 40% (約 1.2-1.6% 總倉) |
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| **理由** | 超賣反彈 + 支撐確認 |
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| **風險** | 低 - 超賣區間 |
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### 第二批倉位 (40% 資金)
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------ | --------------------------- |
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| **進場價** | $40.00 ~ $42.00 |
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| **觸發條件** | 突破 $40 + Q4 財報前 (2/25) |
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| **建倉比例** | 40% (約 1.2-1.6% 總倉) |
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| **理由** | 趨勢確認 + 催化劑佈局 |
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| **風險** | 中 - 追蹤財報 |
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### 第三批倉位 (20% 保留)
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| 項目 | 內容 |
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| ------------ | ---------------------- |
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| **進場價** | 視情況調整 |
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| **觸發條件** | 財報利好 / 超跌機會 |
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| **建倉比例** | 20% (約 0.6-0.8% 總倉) |
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| **風險** | 靈活應變 |
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**⚠️ 50日均線風險控制**:
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- 反彈至 $48 後減倉 30% (鎖定利潤)
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- 跌破 $35 → 縮小倉位 50%
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- 跌破 $30 → 全部停損出場
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---
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## 🛑 停損設定
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| 停損類型 | 價位 | 跌幅 | 理由 |
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| ------------ | ------ | ---- | ----------------- |
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| **技術停損** | $30.00 | -22% | 跌破心理支撐 |
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| **保守停損** | $35.00 | -9% | 跌破次要支撐 |
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| **時間停損** | — | — | 財報後 5 天未起色 |
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| **波動停損** | -15% | — | 單日跌幅超過 |
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**建議停損**: **$30.00** (-22% 從當前價)
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> ⚠️ 相對寬鬆停損因 RSI 超賣 + 催化劑集中
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---
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## 🎯 停利目標
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| 目標 | 價位 | 漲幅 | 建議動作 |
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| ---------- | ------ | ---- | --------------- |
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| **目標 1** | $42.00 | +9% | 減倉 20% |
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| **目標 2** | $48.00 | +25% | 減倉 30% (50MA) |
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| **目標 3** | $55.00 | +43% | 減倉 30% |
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| **目標 4** | $71.00 | +84% | 出清剩餘 20% |
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**分析師目標**: $71.00 ~ $76.00 (+85% ~ +97%)
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**分批獲利策略**: 20% → 30% → 30% → 20%
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---
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## ⚖️ 風險報酬比
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| 項目 | 數值 |
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| -------------- | --------------- |
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| **當前價** | $38.51 |
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| **停損價** | $30.00 |
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| **目標價** | $48.00 (目標 2) |
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| **潛在報酬** | +$9.49 (+25%) |
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| **潛在風險** | -$8.51 (-22%) |
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| **風險報酬比** | **1.1 : 1** |
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> ⚠️ 以保守目標計算偏低
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**若以目標 3 ($55) 計算**:
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- 報酬: +$16.49 (+43%)
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- 風險報酬比: **1.9 : 1**
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**若以分析師目標 ($71) 計算**:
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- 報酬: +$32.49 (+84%)
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- 風險報酬比: **3.8 : 1** ✅
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---
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## 📋 進出場執行計劃 (1000 股範例)
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```
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總倉位: 1000 股 ($38,510)
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📈 進場:
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- 第一批 400 股 @ $37.00 = $14,800
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- 第二批 400 股 @ $41.00 = $16,400
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- 第三批 200 股 @ 視情況
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📊 平均成本: ~$39.00
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🛑 停損:
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- 跌破 $30.00 → 全部出場 (損失 ~$9,000, -23%)
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🎯 停利:
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- 達 $42.00 → 賣 200 股 (獲利 $600)
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- 達 $48.00 → 賣 300 股 (獲利 $2,700)
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- 達 $55.00 → 賣 300 股 (獲利 $4,800)
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- 達 $71.00 → 賣 200 股 (獲利 $6,400)
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💰 總潛在獲利: $14,500 (+37%)
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```
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---
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## 📆 關鍵時間節點
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| 日期 | 事件 | 建議動作 |
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| **現在** | RSI 超賣 $38.51 | 可建第一批 |
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| **2/25** | Q4 財報 | 財報前完成建倉 |
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| **Q2-Q3** | SkyWater 完成 | 持有至完成 |
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---
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## 🔗 後續監控
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1. 每日檢查 RSI 反彈信號
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2. 追蹤 Q4 財報預期 (2/25)
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3. 關注 SkyWater 審批進度
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4. 財報前 1 週評估倉位
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---
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更新時間: 2026-02-03 16:59 | 分析師: Claude
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> **備註**: 用戶同時請求 `/ranking quantum`，將在完成本報告後執行量子股票比較排名。
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