125 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
125 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
|
# 分析 Session: 2026-02-03
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
**建立時間**: 2026-02-03 15:59
|
|||
|
|
**狀態**: ✅ 完成
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
---
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 📋 分析標的
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
| Ticker | 優先級 | 數據 | 催化劑 | 風險 | 進出場 |
|
|||
|
|
| ------ | ------ | ---- | ------ | ---- | ------ |
|
|||
|
|
| ONDS | 🟢高 | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| IONQ | 🟢高 | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| AAPL | — | ✅ | — | — | — |
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
圖例: ⬜ 未完成 | 🟡 進行中 | ✅ 已完成
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
---
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 📊 篩選結果
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### 高優先級 (評分 >75)
|
|||
|
|
| Ticker | 題材 | 催化劑 | IV | 評分 |
|
|||
|
|
| ------ | ------- | --------------- | ---- | ---- |
|
|||
|
|
| PLTR | AI 政府 | Q4 超預期 | 60% | 85 |
|
|||
|
|
| RGTI | 量子 | 突破題材 | 102% | 82 |
|
|||
|
|
| IONQ | 量子 | 企業採用 | 91% | 80 |
|
|||
|
|
| OKLO | 核能 | Aurora mid-2026 | 85% | 78 |
|
|||
|
|
| SMR | 核能 | Romania 決定 | 80% | 76 |
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-stock-scan.md](./2026-02-03-stock-scan.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
---
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 📈 個股分析
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### ONDS
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 基礎數據
|
|||
|
|
- **股價**: $10.42 | **市值**: $4.49B | **成交量**: 92.68M
|
|||
|
|
- **Q4營收預告**: $27-29M (+51% 超目標) | **積壓訂單**: $65.3M (+180%)
|
|||
|
|
- **現金**: >$1.5B | **機構**: 198家持 122M股 (Vanguard +40%)
|
|||
|
|
- **期權**: IV 107.55% | Call/Put 2.57:1 看多
|
|||
|
|
- **分析師**: Strong Buy | 目標價 $17.50 (+68%)
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-ONDS-stock-data.md](./2026-02-03-ONDS-stock-data.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 催化劑
|
|||
|
|
- **財報**: Q4 2025 預計 2026-03-11~24
|
|||
|
|
- **收購**: Rotron Aero 宣布 (2026-02-02)，預計 H1 交割
|
|||
|
|
- **認證**: Optimus Blue List ✅ + FAA BVLOS Waiver ✅
|
|||
|
|
- **展覽**: Singapore Airshow 2026 (2026-02)
|
|||
|
|
- **風險**: 內部人減持 $12.1M、Series B 稀釋
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-ONDS-catalyst.md](./2026-02-03-ONDS-catalyst.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 風險評分
|
|||
|
|
- **總分**: 🟢 **90/100** (高優先級)
|
|||
|
|
- **催化劑**: 9.5/10 | **基本面**: 8/10 | **期權**: 9/10 | **機構**: 9/10 | **流動性**: 10/10
|
|||
|
|
- **建議倉位**: 3-4%
|
|||
|
|
- **警示**: 內部人減持、估值偏高 (90x PS)
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-ONDS-risk-score.md](./2026-02-03-ONDS-risk-score.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 進出場
|
|||
|
|
- **進場**: 分批 $10.00~10.60 | **停損**: $9.00 (-13.6%) | **目標**: $11.20/$13.00/$17.50
|
|||
|
|
- **風險報酬比**: 1.82:1 ~ 5.0:1
|
|||
|
|
- **建倉策略**: 40%/40%/20% 分批
|
|||
|
|
- **關鍵時間**: 2/11 Singapore Airshow, 3/11~24 財報
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-ONDS-entry-exit.md](./2026-02-03-ONDS-entry-exit.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
### IONQ
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 基礎數據
|
|||
|
|
- **股價**: $38.51 | **市值**: $13.6B | **成交量**: 21M
|
|||
|
|
- **FY25營收**: $106-110M | **FY26預估**: $200M+
|
|||
|
|
- **催化劑**: SkyWater 收購 $1.8B (1/26) | Q4 財報 ~2/25
|
|||
|
|
- **機構**: 862家 47.8% (Vanguard 34.8M股 $1.56B)
|
|||
|
|
- **期權**: IV 91% | 看多傾向
|
|||
|
|
- **分析師**: Strong Buy 10家 | 目標價 $71~$100 (+85~160%)
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-IONQ-stock-data.md](./2026-02-03-IONQ-stock-data.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 催化劑
|
|||
|
|
- **財報**: Q4 2025 預計 2026-02-25
|
|||
|
|
- **收購**: SkyWater $1.8B (Q2-Q3 完成)
|
|||
|
|
- **政府**: IonQ Federal 擴張, AFRL >$100M
|
|||
|
|
- **合作**: CCRM/Einride/Seed Innovations
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-IONQ-catalyst.md](./2026-02-03-IONQ-catalyst.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 風險評分
|
|||
|
|
- **總分**: 🟢 **86/100** (高優先級)
|
|||
|
|
- **催化劑**: 9/10 | **基本面**: 7/10 | **期權**: 9/10 | **機構**: 9/10 | **流動性**: 10/10
|
|||
|
|
- **建議倉位**: 3-4%
|
|||
|
|
- **警示**: 估值偏高 (P/S >60x)、尚未獲利
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-IONQ-risk-score.md](./2026-02-03-IONQ-risk-score.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
#### 進出場
|
|||
|
|
- **進場**: 分批 $36~$42 | **停損**: $30 (-22%) | **目標**: $42/$48/$55/$71
|
|||
|
|
- **風險報酬比**: 1.1:1 ~ 3.8:1
|
|||
|
|
- **建倉策略**: 40%/40%/20% 分批
|
|||
|
|
- **技術面**: RSI 31 超賣, 低於 50MA/200MA
|
|||
|
|
- 📄 完整報告: [2026-02-03-IONQ-entry-exit.md](./2026-02-03-IONQ-entry-exit.md)
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
---
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 📝 手動筆記
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
[在此添加任何觀察或備註]
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
---
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
## 🔄 執行紀錄
|
|||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
| 時間 | Workflow | 標的 | 備註 |
|
|||
|
|
| ---------------- | --------------- | ------- | ------------------------------------------- |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 15:59 | /new-session | - | Session 建立 |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:01 | /stock-data | ONDS | 數據收集完成 ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:09 | /catalyst-check | ONDS | 催化劑檢查完成 ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:14 | /risk-score | ONDS | 風險評分完成 ✅ 90/100 |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:18 | /entry-exit | ONDS | 進出場分析完成 ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:44 | /stock-scan | - | 篩選 14 標的，Top5: PLTR/RGTI/IONQ/OKLO/SMR |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:49 | /stock-data | IONQ | 數據收集完成 ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:54 | /catalyst-check | IONQ | 催化劑檢查完成 ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:57 | /risk-score | IONQ | 風險評分完成 ✅ 86/100 |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 16:59 | /entry-exit | IONQ | 進出場分析完成 ✅ |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 17:00 | /ranking | quantum | IONQ #1 (86) > RGTI #2 (82) |
|
|||
|
|
| 2026-02-03 17:18 | /stock-data | AAPL | 數據收集完成 ✅ (藍籌股) |
|