29 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
29 lines
1.5 KiB
Markdown
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# Risk Score: ONDS (Jan 29, 2026)
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## 🛡️ Total Score: 90/100 (🔥 Critical Priority)
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### 1. Catalyst Clarity (35/35) - **MAX SCORE**
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- **Blue List (Confirmed)**: The "Blue List" approval is a binary risk event that has resolved positively. There is no longer speculation—it is a fact.
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- **Contract PO (Imminent)**: With the regulatory gate opened, the purchase order is a logistical formality expected within 48-72 hours.
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### 2. Technical Quality (22/25)
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- **Support Hold**: Price successfully tested and held $12.00, now consolidating at $12.30.
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- **Trend**: Bullish consolidation flag pattern forming after the initial pop.
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- **Risk**: Failure to hold $11.80 would be the only technical negative, but sell-pressure is absorbed by news.
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### 3. Fundamentals (15/20)
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- **Guidance Raised**: FY2026 revenue outlook up to $180M.
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- **DoD Backing**: Government validation validates the tech stack's commercial viability.
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### 4. Sentiment & Liquidity (18/20)
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- **Volume**: Elevated. Market is watching closely.
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- **Institutional Interest**: DoD approval acts as a "seal of quality" for institutional entry.
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## ⚠️ Key Risks
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1. **"Sell the News"?**: There's a small chance of profit-taking on the Blue List news, but the *actual* contract ($$$) hasn't dropped yet. The big run likely happens on the PO.
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2. **Delay**: If the PO doesn't drop by Jan 31, impatience could cause a minor drift lower.
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## 💡 Conclusion
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**Risk is drastically reduced** compared to yesterday. The regulatory gamble is gone. Now it's an execution play.
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**Verdict**: **Aggressive Long**.
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