stock-flow/sessions/2026-01-29-ONDS-risk-score.md

1.5 KiB

Risk Score: ONDS (Jan 29, 2026)

🛡️ Total Score: 90/100 (🔥 Critical Priority)

1. Catalyst Clarity (35/35) - MAX SCORE

  • Blue List (Confirmed): The "Blue List" approval is a binary risk event that has resolved positively. There is no longer speculation—it is a fact.
  • Contract PO (Imminent): With the regulatory gate opened, the purchase order is a logistical formality expected within 48-72 hours.

2. Technical Quality (22/25)

  • Support Hold: Price successfully tested and held $12.00, now consolidating at $12.30.
  • Trend: Bullish consolidation flag pattern forming after the initial pop.
  • Risk: Failure to hold $11.80 would be the only technical negative, but sell-pressure is absorbed by news.

3. Fundamentals (15/20)

  • Guidance Raised: FY2026 revenue outlook up to $180M.
  • DoD Backing: Government validation validates the tech stack's commercial viability.

4. Sentiment & Liquidity (18/20)

  • Volume: Elevated. Market is watching closely.
  • Institutional Interest: DoD approval acts as a "seal of quality" for institutional entry.

⚠️ Key Risks

  1. "Sell the News"?: There's a small chance of profit-taking on the Blue List news, but the actual contract ($) hasn't dropped yet. The big run likely happens on the PO.
  2. Delay: If the PO doesn't drop by Jan 31, impatience could cause a minor drift lower.

💡 Conclusion

Risk is drastically reduced compared to yesterday. The regulatory gamble is gone. Now it's an execution play. Verdict: Aggressive Long.